The Forecaster

[johansson]

Forecaster förutsåg börskraschen 1989 och nu säger hans modell att det blir börskrasch igen den 1a oktober. Hans modell verkar samla en massa data så han ser b.la. pengaflöden in och ut från länder.
Dags att gå short?

Dokumentär här:
http://www.svtplay.se/video/3186356/...ster-avsnitt-1

[rolstean]

Kan rekommendera hans hemsida www.armstrongeconomics.com där han beskriver vad som skett historiskt och mycket annat. Mycket informativt.

[eric]

dags för uppdatering?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqYUhSy4A6Q

[Bertil]

Kan rekommendera hans hemsida www.armstrongeconomics.com där han beskriver vad som skett historiskt och mycket annat. Mycket informativt.

Martin Armstrong jobbar ju för att sammanställa alla sina data på olika kurser, pengaflöden, historiska data mm till en tjänst Sokrates som skall släppas i slutet av september.
Om man prenumererar på Sokrates (skall finnas olika prisnivåer) så kan man ställa frågor om långsiktiga och kortsiktiga trender på olika instrument uttryckt i specifik valuta.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36164

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil

[Bertil]

Jag tog en testprenumeration på $10 på Sokrates, som samlar in all möjlig data och gör analyser. Så här säger Sokrates om OMXS

SOCRATES ANALYSIS

so far is trading down about 5.906% for the year from last year's closing of 1446.82. The market has been finding some support and will remain positive if it holds 1320.14 intraday. This market has been in a bearish consolidation phase for the past 8 months. Some caution is necessary since the last high 1720.02 was important given we did obtain a sell signal from that event April 2015. At this time, my long-term prognosis in remains in a bearish trend since we have penetrated last year's low of 1369.29 after establishing a major high last year. If this year closes below last year's low of 1369.29, then we should expect a further decline next year. Historically, this market experienced a Phase Transition from the low of 1992 to the high of 2015 which amounted to about a 1200% advance. To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 1046.57 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 1720.02 major high established back in 2015.

Looking at the immediate trend remains bearish since December 2015 made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact last month also closed lower. Last month was an outside reversal to the downside which is illustrating a underlying bearish tendency.



While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally.

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil


Edit: Det låter nästan som Putte Koch när han tippade stryktipset, "gardera med etta grundtips krysch". Dvs vi ligger i en bearmarket men det kan ändå bli rally!

[Rikard Autostock]

Hehe, lite förvånad att du tittar på så långa trender Bertil! Lite Putte Kock är det nog ändå, men jag skulle också tro att vi kan få ett "bear market rally" fram till april. Det finns gott om utrymme upp till årsmedel runt 1560. Innan vi är där tolkar i alla fall jag det som fortsatt bear market.

[Bertil]

Hehe, lite förvånad att du tittar på så långa trender Bertil! Lite Putte Kock är det nog ändå, men jag skulle också tro att vi kan få ett "bear market rally" fram till april. Det finns gott om utrymme upp till årsmedel runt 1560. Innan vi är där tolkar i alla fall jag det som fortsatt bear market.

Tja, det är ju snarare intresset för automatisk analys än intresset för långa trender som gör sig gällande. Sokrates skall komma i en Traderversion senare, med dagsaktuella trender, fast den versionen blir för dyr för mig. Hoppas dock att de släpper ett "pröva på under begränsad tid" erbjudande för traderversionen.

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil

[Bertil]

Nu skall flera banker satsa på "Robotrådgivare".
http://www.di.se/artiklar/2016/1/24/...obotradgivare/

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil

[Bertil]

I många trådar talas det ju om risk management. Här är ett exempel på risk management av Armstrongs Sokrates för Tradernivån. Publicerat här:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42732

RISK MANAGEMENT MODELS

Our risk models show a window on each level as follows: On the daily level, we see a 10.93267% risk on the upside, whereas on the downside, the risk factor comes in at 3.686798% for now. From a risk perspective, resistance on a closing basis stands at 17901.58 whereas the risk on the downside begins at 15356.62. Looking at the weekly level, we see a 12.23921% risk on the upside, whereas on the downside, the risk factor calculates at 3.600812%. From a risk perspective, resistance on a closing basis stands at 18168.09 whereas the risk on the downside begins at 15370.33. Turning to the monthly time level, we must respect that there is a 13.11565% risk on the upside, where we show a clear downside risk factor at 19.19519%. From a risk perspective, resistance on a closing basis stands at 18351.36 whereas the risk on the downside begins at 12883.89.

Jag tycker inte det finns tillräckligt höga sannolikheter i exemplet ovan att dra några tydliga slutsatser. Vad säger ni andra?

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil

[Bertil]

Mera länkar:
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ondEdition.pdf
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/
The critical aspect about time is that it is truly fractal in its construction. There are numerous timing frequencies in a single market created by the many minor trends from a variety of different investment strategies. We have found that long-term frequencies always overpower short-term frequencies. Therefore, an 8-week cycle producing a low will be overpowered by a 20-week cycle due to produce a high at the same time. One could say that the 8-week cycle inverted or cancelled out by the stronger 20-week cycle. As this process of long-term cycles dominating the short-term occurs, one begins to realize that long-term cycles are more reliable than the short-term because they are far more difficult to change.
Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil

[Rikard Autostock]

Kan bara hålla med, vi märker ju själva att det är lättare att tjäna pengar på längre trender än korta som blir alltmer slumpartade. Det riktigt intressanta vore att väga ihop olika cykler och få en mer pricksäker indikator som kan titta in i framtiden till nästa stora dipp eller topp där flera cykler sammanfaller.

[Bertil]

Men långa trender är ju ingen sport!

Visst, Armstrongs dataprogram Sokrates sätter ju samman alla trender, valutor, råvaror, globala pengaflöden, valstatistik, krigscykler, mm. mm. till en enhet. Sokrates använder AI och kollar alla tänkbara korrelationer och cykler. Sedan kan man fråga Sokrates om tex guldets troliga utveckling på 1 veckas sikt uttryckt i svenska kronor eller vad man nu är intresserad av.

mvh
Bertil

[Rikard Autostock]

Stämmer det bra i praktiken?

[Bertil]

Stämmer det bra i praktiken?

Jag köpte ju bara en billig pröva på licens som gått ut nu. Traderversionen som är dyr och har bättre tidsupplösning är precis släppt i testversion till dem som deltog i höstens Armstrongseminarier. Har inte hört några oberoende vittnesmål om resultat ännu.

mvh
Bertil

[Bertil]

Uttdrag ur PDF-länken i #10.

The purpose of these indicating ranges is to provide an indication to a specific aspect of market activity based on the closing of the current trading session. The numbers also supply support and resistance.

1.) Immediate Trend The Immediate Trend is the fastest moving indicator to shift position. Again, a neutral indication on the Immediate Trend suggests that there is at least a brief pause in the trend. This normally acts as the first indicator to provide some warning of a change in trend taking place.

2.) Short-Term Momentum
Momentum refers to the market’s ability to move quickly in either direction on a short-term basis. When a market remains in a neutral position, abrupt price movement in either direction is unlikely. Markets that turn positive are capable of a sustained rally. Likewise, markets that remain in a negative position are capable of a further decline.

3.) Short-Term Trend
The trend indicator refers to short-term or the immediate trend at hand. Again, a neutral indication on the trend range suggests a sideways trend is likely whereas a positive indication suggests a continued rally. A negative indication warns of a further decline. The period that the trend range is concerned with is one week on a daily basis, one month on a weekly and one quarter on a monthly basis.

4.) Intermediate Momentum
Intermediate Momentum refers to the market's ability to move more decisively in either direction. Changing the status at this level tends to suggest a more sustained change in trend is developing.

5.) Intermediate Trend
The Intermediate Trend range provides an indication of the broader trend defined as changing trend on a more sustainable basis. Once this indicator starts to shift, we generally have a correction process underway.

6.) Long-Term Trend
The Long-Term Trend range provides an indication of the much broader trend defined more or less as a 10 to 15 interval of time. In other words, a shift on this indicator tends to imply a sustained change in trend say on the monthly level is for one year.

7.) Cyclical Strength
Our Cyclical Strength Indicating Range is rarely discussed. This particular indicator tends to be more important during abrupt moves in the short-term time frame that exceed 15% from the last important low or high. This level of our model incorporates the fixed timing elements of our Empirical Timing Models. Normally, the very definition of a bull or bear market is defined by this level on a model when on a monthly price level. Therefore, a bearish monthly indication suggests a positive bear market; a bull market and neutral indications warn of a market in transition or consolidation.

While monitoring the seven different indicators may seem a bit confusing, the practical use of these indicators is quite simple. As mentioned earlier, the actual indication comes on a closing basis.


Vet inte om jag blev så mycket klokare.

Med vänlig hälsning
Bertil